Fifteen years ago, the National League wild-card race was intensely competitive, with only a 3.5-game difference separating the second wild-card team from the ninth. Fast forward to today, the NL race is even more chaotic. A current NL executive humorously remarked, “2009 can hold my beer,” reflecting the unpredictable nature of this year’s competition.
This year, the National League’s parity—or mediocrity, depending on who you ask—is evident, with only four teams boasting records above .500: the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, and Atlanta Braves. The remaining nine teams are separated by a mere 1.5 games as of mid-June, making the MLB trade deadline on July 30 highly consequential. Only the Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins are too far behind to be considered in the running, positioning them as potential sellers.
The expanded playoff format, now in its third year, has created opportunities for more teams to compete for the wild-card spots, sparking debate on whether to buy or sell. One executive noted the significant incentive to add players if a team is close to contention under the new rules. Conversely, another executive pointed out the potential disconnect between buyers and sellers, predicting a market where sellers with elite players hold significant power while many buyers hesitate to overcommit.
As teams like the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs face off in pivotal series, ESPN consulted six MLB executives and scouts to predict the trade deadline moves of the middle nine teams.
**Teams Likely to Add: St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds**
Executives frequently mentioned the “life cycle of a team,” referring to the current state and future potential of these clubs. The Cardinals and Padres, both with established leadership and recent playoff appearances, are expected to make moves to stay competitive. The Diamondbacks, fresh off an unexpected World Series appearance, are seen as contenders likely to make strategic additions rather than drastic changes. The Reds, motivated by a lengthy playoff drought and significant offseason investments, are anticipated to be aggressive at the deadline to break their postseason absence.
**Teams on the Fence: Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants**
The Cubs have already made smaller moves but their strategy for the deadline will depend on their performance in July. With a strong farm system nearing readiness, they face the decision of whether to trade prospects for immediate gains or to develop long-term talent. The Pirates, aiming to end their playoff drought, have an unproven roster and may make minor additions rather than major trades. The Giants, under the secretive leadership of Farhan Zaidi, might adopt a mixed approach of buying and selling, depending on their standing in the competitive NL West.
**Teams Likely to Subtract: New York Mets, Washington Nationals**
Despite recent strong performances, insiders expect both the Mets and Nationals to cool off. The Mets, with an aging roster and key pending free agents like Pete Alonso, might use the deadline to retool for the future unless a strong July forces them to reconsider. The Nationals, still rebuilding post their 2019 World Series win, might trade valuable assets like closer Kyle Finnegan to strengthen their young core for future contention.
With so many teams within reach of the wild-card spots, this year’s trade deadline promises to be one of the most exciting and unpredictable in recent memory. As one executive suggested, the number of potential buyers could be as high as thirteen, ensuring a dynamic market as teams jostle for postseason positions.
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